Let's discuss the weather

JerryP

JerryP

Lets' go Yankees!
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Will somebody please tell me how it is that after 50 + years of weather data that has been or could be input into computers, that the "weatherman" can be soooooooooooooooo consistently WRONG? If I were AS wrong, AS often, AS these guys are at MY job I wouldn't have the job any more.

It used to be a joke that I would look at the weather forecast to find out what the weather WASN'T going to be. This past year it has been no joke (except that the "profession" of meteorology is a joke).

Surely the wind today has blown similarly with the same atmospheric or barometric pressures as it is today, some time in the past 50 years that I they can be more certain than, "50% chance of rain". What does THAT mean? "It might rain or it might not rain but I'm not taking any chances but whatever it does, I'll be right."

There is a 50% chance that I will have eggs for breakfast today. Has nothing to do with the fact that I have eggs for breakfast for the past 50 years, maybe today I won't. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!! :mmph:
 
Okay, JerryP. But could we nail down something as basis of discussion?

What exactly do you mean by "wrong?" If the forecast is for highs of 65 degs, and it only gets ot 63, is that wrong? How far off does the temperature have to be to be considered wrong.

Same for precipitation. If the forecast is for, let's say, rain, and the band of rain swings 50 miles further south, is that wrong? How far off must they be to be "wrong?"
 
When the forecast for my city (which is by no means a small target) is that it is to rain, lets say "80% chance", I would expect to see a little rain and not 80% blue skies. That would be "partly sunny with a 20% chance of rain". Or if the temperature is forecast to be in the upper 60s, I don't think that that means lower 70s. To be safe they could say "upper 60s to the low 70s". Or if the forecast is 3" of snow I wouldn't expect a blizzard. I can't even count the times I have carried an umbrella because of the weather forecast to have never had it even drizzle.

I am a pretty understanding person but this weather miss-forecast is just too much to understand.
 
I'm totally with you on this one Jerry! I've given that same speech many a time.

"Temperature's somewhere in the mid 60's to low 70's today." Really? I could've guessed that. I often think they just look out the window.

Earlier this week we were told we'd be getting a cold mix of rain and snow. Turned out to be a beautiful day. Sunshine all day and not a cloud in the sky.

I have determined after living here for four years that the temperature needs to be precisely 71 degree's or higher to head to the beach. When they give a range of degree's that go from "you'll need a sweater" to "you're gonna sweat"...that's not really helpful.

I know they're probably doing their best, but as you said, it seems with all the tech stuff they have anymore, they could get a little closer to the "Outside the window at out studio, it's 58 degrees and cloudy with slight precipitation".

Oh that's the other thing that always riles me up. Why do they tell you what the weather is RIGHT now??? I can see that for myself.
 
JerryP said:
When the forecast for my city (which is by no means a small target) is that it is to rain, lets say "80% chance", I would expect to see a little rain and not 80% blue skies. That would be "partly sunny with a 20% chance of rain". Or if the temperature is forecast to be in the upper 60s, I don't think that that means lower 70s. To be safe they could say "upper 60s to the low 70s". Or if the forecast is 3" of snow I wouldn't expect a blizzard. I can't even count the times I have carried an umbrella because of the weather forecast to have never had it even drizzle.

I am a pretty understanding person but this weather miss-forecast is just too much to understand.
Click to expand...

We had a day this winter where they called for 2 inches and we got 1 1/2 feet! WHOOPS!!! Do you think they got some kind of "write-up" or just a verbal repremand?
 
I haven't done laundry for two days because we were supposed to get "powerful thunderstorms". Our "storm" (which was less than a half inch) occurred at 3am this morning. Now they say it won't rain for a few days. I'll bet my last dime that I'll do laundry today and BAM...it will rain.
 
Hanging out the laundry and washing the car CAUSE rain. They don't predict it. :sus: Maybe it's you neat-nics that are throwing out the whole weather prediction accuracy :convinced:
I don't own a car and I have my laundry done for me so it can't be MY fault :28:
 
Jerry, you sound disappointed that it isn't raining.......
 
Rain or shine it doesn't matter. I just like to have a forecast that is a forecast and not just a wild-ass-guess.
 
"You can't predict the weather." Twister
 
Bleaux said:
"You can't predict the weather." Twister
Click to expand...

I can't predict the weather but I think that there is sufficient past weather information that can be compared to exiting (today) weather conditions that the forecasts can be better.
Yesterday the forecast was 50% chance of rain. There was NONE. Today the forecast is 30% chance and it looks to be a certainty to me. :mmph:
 
Poor Jerry........it's overcast here too......

per Yahoo....
Staten Island, NY
SEVERE WEATHER ALERT
Forecast Details:
Generally cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 56F. Winds ENE at 10 to 20 mph.
»More Weather
Click to expand...
tomorrow...
Staten Island, NY
Forecast Details:
Showers and a possible thunderstorm in the morning will give way to cloudy skies late. High 64F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
»More Weather
Click to expand...

Let's see if Yahoo is more accurate....;)
 
Is that an island???

When is NY not NY???

When it's an island.

I just crack myself up.LOL
 
Yep... they can't predict the weather for our area accurately even a couple of hours out.

Weather prediction is a voodoo science!
 
diGriz said:
When is NY not NY???

When it's an island.

I just crack myself up.LOL
Click to expand...

And that's how they speak here too! :p

:rofl: Yo, Thony, Vinny, Carmine, Rocco, Otto & Artie, got any cannolis?(sp?) LOL

cannolis.jpg
 
We had tornado warnings for 12 hours on Thursday. We haven't had a tornado his this town since 1988...

Being a meteorologist is the second job you can have where you can be wrong most of the time and still get a pretty decent paycheck for doing it.
 
I wonder how I can get a job as a meteorologist? I thought for sure it was going to rain today and it didn't. I believe that puts right up there with the rest of the weather "professionals".
How better could it get, to have a job where it doesn't matter if you are right or wrong and people keep right on believing you. Ain't America wonderful?
Now that I think of it, weathermen don't have it cornered either. Politicians do it all the time. JerryP for PRESIDENT! (or weatherman - same difference).
 
JerryP said:
I wonder how I can get a job as a meteorologist? I thought for sure it was going to rain today and it didn't. I believe that puts right up there with the rest of the weather "professionals".
How better could it get, to have a job where it doesn't matter if you are right or wrong and people keep right on believing you. Ain't America wonderful?
Now that I think of it, weathermen don't have it cornered either. Politicians do it all the time. JerryP for PRESIDENT! (or weatherman - same difference).
Click to expand...

I used to do insurance billing in a medical office and 90% of all the claims from Blue Cross/Blue Shield used to come back wrong and I'd have to call and have them corrected. My insurance company now is United Health Care and they get about 40% right leaving me to call and fight out the rest. I've even been told it was processed wrong, but they don't know how to fix it. That's who I want to work for!

..unless you'll hire me as your secretary Jerry!?
 
How about "Cybermon for Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare"

Wow, I could fill my whole Cabinet with Spoofers. We'd be able to do forums all day, get great deals and not have to worry about being right about any of the political stuff any more than the weatherman.
 
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